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Feedback Loops (and the two forces inside them) Feedback loops are how systems “decide” what happens next. Not with intention—with momentum. Some loops reinforce themselves: succes
The rare event is never “rare” to the system that survives it. A Black Swan isn’t just a surprising occurrence. It’s a shock that exposes how little your current model—your forecas
Once a metric becomes the goal, it stops reflecting reality and starts reshaping incentives. Goodhart’s Law explains the “target trap”—and offers practical ways to keep measurement useful, not misleading.
In-group vs out-group bias shapes how we trust, interpret mistakes, and decide who “belongs.” Often it’s subtler than prejudice—our identities quietly become the evidence we use.
Why your intentions don’t run the show Intentions feel like causes. Rewards feel like controls. But in the world we actually live in, controls win. People behave according to what
Most choices feel finished the moment the first outcome happens—but consequences ripple and reconfigure the system. Second-order thinking is the habit of asking what must happen next, so your decisions stay useful in the real world.
Network effects explain why some systems don’t just grow—they get better as more people join. Value compounds when the structure of connections changes what becomes possible, useful, and trusted.
When something is easy to recall, your mind may treat it as more likely, more common, and more true—without checking the evidence. Discover how “availability” shapes belief, risk judgments, and everyday certainty—and how to correct it.
First-principles thinking helps you cut through assumptions and noise to find the non-negotiables that your decisions can actually stand on. It’s a method for rebuilding your model from justifiable claims—so you can act with confidence.
The 80/20 lever reframes effort as a design constraint: a minority of inputs unlocks most outcomes. Learn to identify the structural 20% that raises your ceiling.
When you can’t tell what’s right, your brain often treats other people’s actions as evidence. Social proof can be adaptive—but it can also trigger cascades that preserve confidence, not correctness.
The tragedy of the commons isn’t about bad people—it’s about incentives that reward “one more” while costs arrive later and spread out. Once private benefits outpace public consequences, depletion becomes the rational choice.