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Status Signalling Most of what people do isn’t only aimed at outcomes. It’s aimed at position. Not “position” as in rank cards—though that’s part of it. Position as in: where am I
The spotlight effect makes you overestimate how much others notice your flaws, awkward moments, and private thoughts. It’s not vanity—it’s your brain confusing what feels vivid to you with what’s actually salient to them.
Habituation: when your brain stops treating the world like a threat Repeated exposure doesn’t always make things better. It often makes them smaller—emotionally. That’s habituation
Coordination Problems: The Hidden Tax on Group Success A weird thing happens when you put competent people into a group. Even if every individual benefits from the group’s success,
Information Asymmetry When one side knows more—about value, timing, risk, intent—advantage stops being loud and starts being structural. This isn’t “being smarter.” It’s being posi
Regression to the Mean There’s a special kind of disappointment in watching something wildly abnormal settle down. Markets drop. Talent disappears. Systems “mysteriously” level out
Feedback Loops (and the two forces inside them) Feedback loops are how systems “decide” what happens next. Not with intention—with momentum. Some loops reinforce themselves: succes
The rare event is never “rare” to the system that survives it. A Black Swan isn’t just a surprising occurrence. It’s a shock that exposes how little your current model—your forecas
In-group vs out-group bias shapes how we trust, interpret mistakes, and decide who “belongs.” Often it’s subtler than prejudice—our identities quietly become the evidence we use.
Why your intentions don’t run the show Intentions feel like causes. Rewards feel like controls. But in the world we actually live in, controls win. People behave according to what
Network effects explain why some systems don’t just grow—they get better as more people join. Value compounds when the structure of connections changes what becomes possible, useful, and trusted.
When something is easy to recall, your mind may treat it as more likely, more common, and more true—without checking the evidence. Discover how “availability” shapes belief, risk judgments, and everyday certainty—and how to correct it.